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Cheltenham Day 4 Stat Attack

Its the final day of the festival so for one last time we have our very own stat attack for you to go with our in depth race previews to hopefully help you finish with a few more winners


So if you love a good stat and are looking for a different angle or trend to follow, check out the below for each race


JCB Triumph Hurdle


•      Trainer Nicky Henderson has the likely favourite Sir Gino in the contest and has an excellent record in the race, having 7 winners to date going all the way back to First Bout in 1985

•      Trainers Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott are responsible for five of the last six winners of this race.

•      Fillies have a particularly good record in this race, 25 fillies priced 14/1 and under have run in the race, 5 have won, 10 others have been placed. A big positive for Kargese this year

•      8 of the last 12 winners finished in the first four in the DRF Grade 1 at Leopardstown over the Xmas Period, this year won by Kargese, Storm Heat 2nd, Majborough 3rd, and Bunting back in 4th. A very hot formline

•      Another race to focus at the top of the betting market as 14 of the last 19 winners come from the front four in the market

•      There has only ever been one odds on winnerof the race, all the way back to Attivo in 1974

•      The last 25 winners of the race ran between 18 and 55 days prior to the Festival

•      10 of the last 11 winners were not outside the first two in any previous GB or IRE hurdle run

 

McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle

 

•      The two trainers to focus on for this contest are Dan Skelton and Willie Mulins. Between them they have won eight of the last nine renewals of the race.

•      18 of the last 21 winners were either novices or second-season hurdlers, again improving unexposed types.

•      There has been only two winners this century with a official rating 150+. This would be a negative for Pied Piper who comes in here with a mark of 156

•      Five of the last eight winners of the race were ex-Flat horses

•      This century only Arctic Fire had finished in the first five at a previous Festival

•      Arctic Fire was also the only winner of the last 14 won wearing any sort of headgear

•      Three of Dan Skelton's four winners hadn't raced since at least Boxing Day

 

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle


•      Class is again significant, with 13 of the 19 winners previously 1st or 2nd last time out in Graded Class. Only The Nice Guy and Monkfish of the 19 had yet to be placed in a Graded hurdle

•      16 of the last 18 winners were either six or seven years of age. Only Butcher Hollow comes into the race as a 5 yr old.

•      10 of the last 13 had placed hurdle form over at least 2m 7f. Stamina, and proven stamina is a must in this specific contest.

•      This is again highlighted as 11 of the last 12 favourites with no graded hurdle placed form over at least 2m 7f were all beat.

•      Vanillier winning in 2021 was the only French Bred winner in last 15 years

•      A race the Irish have an excellent strike rate in, in fact Irish Trained horses have taken 7 of the last 10 renewals

•      17 of the last 19 winner recorded a top three finish last time out

•      Ratings is again a good starting point, 10 of the last 14 winners already achieved ratings of 140+

•      Only three of the last 19 winners had less than three runs over hurdles coming into the Festival itself.

•      A race for the bookmakers, as there has been no winning favourite since 2013

•      Somewhat surprisingly, Gordon Elliott is yet to win this race

 

Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup


•      No winner of the Gold Cup in the last 22 years were aged 10 years or over, including four beaten favourites. This is a big negative for the likes of Shishkin and Corach Rambler

•      Horses that return having been beaten in the race have a poor record – only A Plus Tard and Native River have won the race having been beaten in it before.

•      Only Native River in 2018 wore any sort of headgear when winning the Gold Cup

•      Only two winners of the race failed to finish 1st or 2nd last time out, another negative for Corach Rambler.

•      All 22 winners of the race this century were already G1 winners coming into the Festival.

•      Another race where it is beneficial to focus on the top end of the betting market with only two winners bigger than 10/1 this century.

•      16 of the last 17 winners of the race were rated 164+ before tasting success in the Gold Cup. Gentlemansgame comes into the Festival with a rating of just 160.

•      14 of the last 16 winners of the race have not had more than three chase runs that season

•      9 of the last 10 winners of the race had solid previous Festival form prior to the Gold Cup. Course and Distance form always a benefit, as is previous Festival Form

 

St. James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Steeplechase


•      The last 9 winners of the race were all aged 10 or 11 years old. Ferns lock comes into the race aged only 7!

•      Only one of the last 34 winners were older than 11 yrs old, a big negative for Billaway who comes into the race aged 12.

•      Course form is again vital, with 7 of the last 8 winners aged over 10 yrs old were already course winners

•      In terms of ratings, 11 of the last 14 winners were rated at least 134 coming into the contest

•      14 of the last 16 winners of the race finished in the first three last time out prior to the Festival.

•      7 of the last 10 different winners had run in at least 12 chases under rules prior to winning this contest

•      Seven of the last 14 winners finished in the first five in the previous year's race

•      Five of the last eight amateur renewals of the race were won by lady jockeys

 

Mrs Paddypowers G2 Mares Chase


Only on year four of this race.  Not many Trends and Stats due to this being only the fourth renewal of the race.


•      Ideally looking for an Irish trained winner, horse that won last time out  have an excellent record and this is boosted if the win was in at least Listed Class.

•      Look for runners who either have won over 2m 4f or placed in this race previously.

•      Horses rated in the 150s is a very good starting point. 

•      The first three renewals of this race were won by well punted second favourites, so a race to keep an eye on the markets.

 

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys H'cap Hurdle


•      Always keep on eye on the Gigginstown runners, they have run 17 in this race in recent years, 4 have won, five were placed and had many notably unlucky losers along the way including Column of Fire. Quai De Bourbon represents the connections this year.

•      The leading trainers are a good spot to start - Willie Mullins has four winners of the race (all novices), Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliott and Joseph O'Brien all have two each. All four have also had at least two other runners placed finishers.

•      Three of the last five winning jockeys had already ridden over 40 winners, so can pay to side with the more experienced and seasoned conditional riders.

•      Not a race to focus on the favourite, as Sir Des Champs in 2011 is the only favourite ever to win the contest.

•      All bar Early Doors in 2019 of the last 13 winners ran within the last 62 days

•      Only two of the eight Irish trained winners had previously run in a handicap prior to the Festival, handicap debutants always worth a second look, especially from the leading yards.

•      All seven GB trained winners had run in at least two handicaps.

•      13 of the last 15 winners had no more than eight hurdle runs prior to the Festival.

•      12 of the last 15 winners had previously ran in a Graded hurdle.

•      14 of the last 15 winners had won a hurdle of at least 11 runners

•      11 of the last 13 winners had finished in the first three on their previous run prior to the Festival itself

•      No winner has ever carried 11st or less, not a race for those creeping in at the bottom of the weights


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