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Cheltenham Day 3 Stat Attack

For Day 3 of the festival our very stat attack is back to go with our in depth race previews too


So if you love a good stat and are looking for a different angle or trend to follow, check out the below for each race as we move in to Thursday


Turners Novices Chase (The Golden Miller)


•       Age again is a good starting point with all winners of the race bar Samcro being 6 or 7 years old. This could be a negative for Ginnys Destiny who is an 8 yr old.

•       11 of the last 13 winners had previously raced within 60 days of this contest

•       All 13 winners of the race had ran at a previous Festival but only six were winning there for the second time

•       Irish trained horses have an excellent record, winning nine of the 13 renewals, 8 of those returned with an SP no bigger than 4/1

•       Form prior to the Festival is important as 11 of the last 12 winners of the race had won their last completed chase

•       9 of the last 12 winners had won a Graded chase prior to the Festival.

•       Only Bob Olinger and Yorkhill had less than three previous chase runs coming into the Festival, both had won their two chases coming into the race but as a rule is beneficial to side with those that have experience

•       The last 9 winners of the race were rated at least 151 after mares allowance taken into consideration. A negative for supporters of Iroko who is rated just 149

 

Pertemps Handicap Hurdle


•       Trainer Gordon Elliott has and excellent record in the race and has run 19 horses since 2017, 3 of these have won, 9 others finished at least 5th. All Elliott runners are worth a second look

•       Again it is worthwhile siding with those unexposed improving types, only 3 of the last 12 winners had more than nine hurdle runs prior to the Festival

•       Only 2 in the last 22 had actually won a Pertemps qualifier coming into the Festival.

•       This century only Sire De Berlais (2019) had not run since December 31st, so match fitness is once again beneficial

•       7 of the last 8 winners of the race wore tongue ties

•       Only Presenting Percy in 2017 of the last 14 winners had won more than once that season

•       There has been no winner older than 8 yrs old since 2011, a big negative for 10 yr old Chantry House

•       Seven of the last eight Irish Trained winners ran in the Leopardstown Qualifier in February, Gaoth Chuil was 2nd in the race this year, with Yeats Star ½ length back in third.

•                11 from last 13 winners were rated 138+ coming into the Festival

•       Surprisingly both leading trainers Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls are yet to win the race.

 

Ryanair Chase


•       Look for those likely to be up with the pace, as the last ten winners of the race  'made all', 'tracked leaders' or were 'prominent.' Those ridden patiently struggle in this race specifically.

•       Age is a good starting point, with the last 11 winners aged 7 to 9 yrs old. Envoi Allen comes into the race as a 10 yr old which could be seen as a negative

•       Festival form is once again significant with the last 8 winners having ran in at least two previous Festivals

•       None of the last 16 winners had more than four previous runs that season

•       12 of the last 16 winners had already won a Grade 1 contest, proven class once again is significant.

•       In terms of ratings, the last 14 winners were rated 161+ coming into the Festival. This would be a negative for the likes of Fugitif and GA Law

•       Another race the Irish trained runners have an excellent record in as they have won 7 of the last 8 renewals of the contest.

•       Course form is once again a big plus with 12 the last 16 winners previous course winners

•       A race to focus on those to the top of the market with 11 from of the last 12 winners of the race no bigger than 8/1 at the off.

 

Paddy Powers Stayers Hurdle


•       Age can be significant in the stayers as since 1972 only seven horses aged 9 or older have won the race. Six of those seven were previous Festival winners. That would be a negative for the likes of Dashel Drasher and Champ

•       8 of the last 10 winners were aged either 6 or 7 yrs old. Seven of the last ten were second season hurdlers, so look for those potentially on the upgrade.

•       Every winner since 1986 finished in the first 4 on their last completed run prior to the Festival, a negative for the likes of Champ and Home By The Lee

•       Sire De Berlais was the first winner since Iris's Gift 2004 to have been previously beaten in this race. Since 2004, 49 others have tried and failed.

•       Inglis Drever back in 2007 was the last horse to regain the Stayers Hurdle title. He had missed a season through injury when returning to reclaim his crown.

•       17 from the last 20 winners had finished 1st or 2nd last time out.

•       22 from last 23 winners had previously been placed at least at Grade 1 level

•       Sire De Berlais winning last year was the first headgear wearing winner since Nomadic Way back in 1992

 

Trustatrader Plate Handicap Steeple Chase


•       This was a race the Irish had an awful record in, not winning for 33 years, but since then Irish trained horses have won five of the last eight renewals.

•       All winners bar Seddon in the last eight renewals were either novices or second-season chasers. Again, look for unexposed improving types rather than those that have fallen back down the handicap.

•       6 of the last 8 winners of the race were actually making their Festival debut.

•       Another race were it is beneficial to be ridden up with the pace, as the last five winners of the race have either 'led' or 'prominent' throughout. Possibly put a line through those that look to be ridden in the rear.

•       The last 5 winners of the race had a course win that season

•       10 of the last 12 winners were aged in the six to nine years old age bracket.

•       9 of the last 10 winners had no more than 12 previous chase runs prior to the Festival.

•       This century only Mister McGoldrick won the race with more than 16 chase runs coming into the Festival

•       The last 10 winners of the race had an official rating of 140 to 149, this is a good starting point when narrowing down the field.

•       The Shunter winning in 2021 was the only headgear winner since 2003

•       18 of the last 20 winners had raced within the last 77 days prior to the Festival

•       The last nine winners of this race had all won that season prior to the Festival

 

Mares Novice Hurdle (The Dawn Run)


•       6 of the 8 winners of the race had run at least four times over hurdles prior to the Festival

•       All winners of the race to date have been aged 5 or 6 yrs old

•       6 of the 8 winners of the race are Irish Trained, but neither of the last two

•       No horse that was beaten favourite last time out has gone on to score in this race.

•       No horse wearing headgear have won the race to date

•       All winners of the race had finished in the first three last time out

•       This has turned into a race for the bookmakers, with the last five favourites unplaced, four of them under 3/1

 

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Steeple Chase


•       Another race that has looked to favour the bookmakers. There has been 11 Irish trained favourites or joint favs in the last 20 renewals of the race, all bar Mount Ida were beaten

•       Only two winners of the last 21 renewals had won last time out prior to the Festival

•       The last five winners of this race were all novices

•       Ratings can again be a good starting point with 10 of the last 12 winners rated between 137 and 143 officially. This would be a positive for the likes of Angels Dawn.

•       The last 19 winners of the race had raced at least twice that season prior to the Festival.

•       17 of the last 19 winners were aged 7, 8 or 9 years old

•       Surprisingly, leading trainers Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins are both yet to win this race.

•       It is beneficial to focus on those to the top of the betting market, with 7 of the last 9 winners being sent off at 10/1 or less

• A race to focus on the best Amateur riders, with Irish based amateurs having won 7 of the last 9 renewals of the race. Jamie Codd has won four, Derek O'Connor one and has been thrice a runner up



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