The greatest show on turf rolls on to Friday with the big finale in the Gold Cup and once again we've got a great preview of it all for you here on The Cheeky Punts with and extra bonus of our very own stat attack for all 7 races
Friday 15th March
1:30pm JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m1f
If you are still going strong by Day 4 you will be looking to go out with a bang and the opening contest on the final day is the JCB Triumph Hurdle for the 4 yr old’s.
This race has been thrown wide open with Nicky Henderson pulling out the odds-on favourite Sir Gino, and now look like an Irish benefit once again.
It is a shame Henderson didn’t risk running Sir Gino as would have been the lay of the century at that price with his horses un-backable with counterfeit money at the current time, but fingers crossed he comes back A1 later in the season as could be a superstar.
In his absence I do like the profile of the mare, Kargese – who is getting a 7lb allowance from her male rivals and this could be significant.
The best form-line we have for this contest was the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile at DRF which Kargese won (Storm Heart second, Majborough third, Bunting fourth), and you could possibly mark the run up slightly as she was short of room 2 out and didn’t jump the last hurdle great but still went on to win by a length and a quarter.
Though others may improve past her since this run at the DRF, the form is rock solid and with the allowance must be on the shortlist.
The one most likely to improve for that race is Majborough, for leading owner JP McManus.
He came into the DRF with a huge reputation so clearly is showing a fair bit at home and the vibes were that he would improve considerably for the run, this was his first run since last April and for a huge horse he must take some getting fit.
It would be no surprise to see Mark Walsh kick out and make the running and wouldn't be a surprise to see him improve past the likes of Storm Heart and Kargese
One that could still be overpriced is Nurburgring for trainer Joseph O’Brien. The yard won the Boodles on Tuesday with Lark in the Mornin, so will have a good idea where they stand with this years Juveniles and the 4 yr old will love the underfoot conditions and looks to have a great profile for the hustle and bustle of a Triumph Hurdle.
He was only a nose behind Kargese last time out at Leopardstown, and looked slightly outpaced there in a race they didn’t go quick at all, strongly suggesting that the quicker they go, the better his chance.
If playing in-running, expect to see him staying on up the hill and looks to have leading claims.
The dark horse, and a horse I actually backed at 16/1 prior to the DRF in February thinking that he would be seen there, only to be a non runner, is the Willie Mullins trained Salvator Mundi.
This would be some training performance, as he has not been seen under rules in the UK as of yet, this will be his British race course debut, but clearly has a huge reputation at home and this is understandable as did chase home Sir Gino at Auteuil in France last April.
When you consider Sir Gino was an odds-on shot for this race and now a non-runner, should Salvator Mundi come here in tip top condition it wouldn't be a surprise to see him being the most classy horse in the field.
I did like the chances of Ethical Diamond who is said to work like a proper horse at home but clearly wants better ground, and don’t discount Salver for Gary Moore – and should the rain arrive is a horse that will love the testing conditions.
Selections:
Nurburgring, 13/2 Each-Way
Salvator Mundi, 10/1 Each-way
2:10pm County Handicap Hurdle 2m1f
Arguably the trickiest puzzle of the week pops up as the second race of the card, the County Hurdle over the extended 2miles.
As mentioned numerous times on the TV coverage, the two trainers to focus on for this race is Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton who between them have won 8 of the last 9 renewals of the race, which really is some effort.
The most obvious place to start is with the Skelton trained L’Eau Du Sud, who comes into this race on the back of an excellent second in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury.
He chased home Iberico Lord that day, who was later supplemented for the Champion Hurdle earlier this week, and the form has been franked by the likes of Go Dante who won a big handicap prize at Sandown last weekend, a very strong form line.
This looks to have been the plan all season and from a mark of 135 you would have to expect him to go very close for the in form stable.
Team Mullins have numerous chances as you would expect, again – if this had been run on quicker ground I would have given Absurde a big shout but the ground has gone against him, so the 2 of Mullins stable I really like are Zenta and Bialystok.
Zenta won the Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at Liverpool last season after chasing home Lossiemouth in the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival and gets in from a mark of 145 which could be very attractive for a horse who will love the underfoot conditions.
He is the choice of Mark Walsh and I expect a big run is on the cards granted a clear run.
Bialystok strikes me as a well handicapped type also, he has Grade 1 form behind Farren Glory earlier in the season and then looked to be travelling really well at Leopardstown when was unfortunate to be brought down by a faller.
Another big run expected if able to avoid trouble this time around.
You can’t not give a strong mention to King of Kingsfield for trainer Gordon Elliott.
This horse has been well touted for this race across the preview scene in the build up to the Festival and you could argue he is chucked in from a mark of 140 as brings in the form-line behind both Slade Steel and Ballyburn who we have seen win earlier this week already.
A very strong travelling horse, expect to see him swinging behind the pace looking the most likely winner and has to be respected.
Selections:
Zenta, 11/1 Each-Way 6 places
Bialystok, 14/1 Each-way 5 places
2:50pm Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle (Grade 1) 3m
Possibly the most competitive Grade 1 of the week is race 3 on the final day, the staying hurdle contest for novices, which could be a real test of stamina in these heavy conditions – so box clever as it would be no surprise to see a big priced winner and a shock result.
Of those to the top of the market, one I am fond of is Gidleigh Park for Dorset trainer Harry Fry, a former assistant to Paul Nicholls.
This 6 yr-old is still unbeaten and the form of when winning over 2 and a half miles at the track back in January was franked this week with Lucky Place running a big race despite the form of the Henderson yard.
I expect Gidleigh Park to improve for this step up to 3miles and is a hugely exciting type, who could be back here next year as one of the favourites for one of the Novice Chases at the Festival.
The one who strikes me as possibly the best stayer in the field is Lecky Watson, for leading trainer Willie Mullins. Once again, he brings in form behind Slade Steel at Navan, and very much looks the type to excel over this test of stamina.
Though he has 7 lengths to find with Readin Tommy Wrong from the Naas run last time out, that was over 2 ½ miles and was closing all the way to the line, you would expect him to get much closer over this extended trip and the quicker they go they better his chance.
As mentioned above, the favourite is Reading Tommy Wrong, again for team Mullins.
It is hard to knock his form, unbeaten since arriving in Ireland and beat Ile Atlantique at Naas last time out and every reason to believe he will get 3miles no problem at all.
There has not been a winning favourite in this race since 2013 though, so might be worthwhile looking elsewhere at the restricted prices currently on offer.
Captain Teague, Johnnywho and High Class Hero all do have strong profiles and are respected, but one horse who I feel is over priced is the Harry Redknapp owned The Jukebox Man.
The 6 year old was a horse I had a good word for prior to his victory at Ffos Las in November and was backed down to even money favourite to score easily.
This is a horse who cannot have the ground soft enough, if the heavens open it will increase his chances ten fold, and will improve for the step up to 3miles for sure. Not one to discount at the bigger prices to give Harry another winner on the week.
Selections:
Gidleigh Park, Each-Way, 13/2 4 places
Lecky Watson, Each-Way, 12/1 4 places
3:30pm Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1) 3m 2 1/2f
The highlight of the week, the Cheltenham Gold Cup is next up, and what a race we have this year and a real puzzle for punters.
The only place you can really start when looking at this race is with last years winner, Galopin Des Champs – are you with him, or are you against him? - That is the question that all punters need to ask themselves when looking at this year’s Gold Cup.
The 8 yr old superstar could not have been more impressive than when scoring last year by 7 lengths, and the way in which he grabbed the bridle and then powered up the hill strongly suggests if anywhere near that sort of form this afternoon he will not be beat.
He also was visually immense when scoring at Leopardstown last time, beating one of today's main rivals Fastorslow by over 4 lengths, and if in that vein of form will surely be crowned champion once again.
Fastorslow has beaten Galopin Des Champs in 2 of their last 3 clashes, and should the champion not run to his magnificent best looks the most likely to take the crown.
This test of stamina will suit him down to the ground, and master trainer Martin Brassil will have him just where he wants him for the big day.
The horse clearly goes well at the track, as has been beaten a neck and a short head at the last two Festivals and surely another huge run is on the cards.
Two that I think offer a touch of value against the favourite are Bravemansgame and Corach Rambler. Bravemansgame is said to be working really well at home and back to somewhere near his best once again.
He was outstayed by Galopin Des Champs in the race last year but still finished a good runner up, and if running to the same form level would have to enter calculations again for this years renewal.
Corach Rambler is the Grand National winner, so clearly stamina is not going to be an issue and loves the track as was a winner of the Ultima at the Festival in 2022 and then again in 2023.
Though he has not shown much this season, you get the feeling he has been saved for the spring and still remains unexposed in these Grade 1 chases.
If the team have him back to his best, he must have a serious chance.
Hewick would be a great story, but would want better ground to be seen at his best, which is not a factor with Nassalam, any rain that does fall will boost his chances ten-fold, a confirmed mud lover who absolutely bolted up in bottomless conditions in the Welsh National.
L’Homme Presse should not be discounted, neither should Gentlemansgame for master trainer Mouse Morris who feels there is plenty more to come from his 8 yr old.
A hugely exciting race, a lot deeper race than many seem to think, and the question remains are you with the reigning champion Galopin Des Champs, or against him. Personally, I would be looking for value against him at bigger prices but there is no doubting he is the best horse in the race.
Selections:
Corach Rambler, Each-Way 14/1 4 places
Bravemansgame, Each-Way 14/1 4 places
4:10pm St James Hunters Chase 3m 2 1/2f
The Hunter Chase is up next, run over the Gold Cup trip for the Amateur riders – and I will confess the Hunter Chase scene is not an area I would be focusing on too much personally.
The race often pays to follow the best riders in the field, so the likes of Patrick Mullins, Derek O Connor, Barry O’Neil and Rob James should be followed.
Barry O’Neil rides Fern Lock for David Christie and will be many punters idea of the winner, and clearly is a very talented animal.
It would be no surprise to see him go close, but I would be worried that he is only a 7 yr-old and might be the type to come back here in 12months with a favourites chance rather than today. Not a horse I would be looking to lay, but also not one I would personally be looking to unload on either.
It’s On The Line would be the top of my shortlist if you put a gun to my head, and does have the assistance of the best rider in the race, Derek O’Connor.
He could be one of the gambles of the day if owner JP McManus was to get involved so a market watch would be advised and was second last year as a 6yr old, so again – even though is only 7 does have that extra year of experience over the likes of Ferns Lock.
Trainer Emmet Mullins is a complete genius at getting horses ready for the big day and must have leading claims
Billaway is an enigma – 12 years old now, and has his own views on things, you are never really sure what Billaway will turn up.
One thing is for sure, he will look well beat at one stage of the race, he then stays on like a train, but I have a feeling his best days are now past him and though would be great to see him win, I think his best days are in the past.
One that I was told might go well at a nice price is Sine Nomine, a horse I do not know much about to be honest but did win by 15 lengths recently at Wetherby and comes into this with place claims at least I am told.
Selections:
It’s On The Line, 2/1 Bet MGM, Bet UK
4:50pm Mares Chase 2m 4 1/2f
The Paddy Power Mares Chase is the next contest on the agenda, and this is the one race of the day where it will be very significant how those at the top of the market are supported, which are strong in the betting – which very weak, and worth noting these moves.
Legendary high-stakes punter JP McManus owns two at the top of the betting, Dinoblue and Limerick Lace, and should there be considerable support for one of these, it would be highly significant.
Dinoblue was my idea of the winner of this throughout the season, and is the form pick having racked up Grade 1 form throughout the season, including when stuffing Gentleman De Mee (runner up in the Arkle on Wednesday) by 7 lengths at Leopardstown over Christmas.
The one worry with Dinoblue, is the trip. All her winning has been over 2miles and with this being an extended 2 and a half miles, the one serious worry would be if she gets up that famous Cheltenham hill.
She will look the most likely winner of the contest for the majority of the race, and would be the best bet of the week if this was to be run over 2miles, but you are basically betting on whether she will get home over this new test of stamina or not.
Allegorie De Vassy is a solid option, and was a very good runner up in this race last year behind Impervious, which is a very strong form line and would put her bang in the mix again this year.
She was very impressive when beating Riviere D’Etel last time out at Naas and a reproduction of that form would make her hard to beat.
The horse I have decided to side with over the last few days is the Gavin Cromwell trained Limerick Lace, who has really impressed this season with wide margin victories at Doncaster and Clonmel.
She also has strong graded form over 3miles, so they quicker they go, and the more of a
test of stamina the race is – the more it will suit Limerick Lace. She will be staying on best of all up the hill and is hard to see her not being in the frame.
Stable-mate Brides Hill would have been a big player in this race had it come up better ground but the wheels might be spinning in the soft conditions unfortunately but is one to stick in your trackers for the Festivals in the Spring.
At a huge price, Harmonya Maker is no back number – but would need to return to her best form. She was disappointing last time out but on the pick of her form she would be less than half of the price she is currently trading at.
Selections:
Limerick Lace, 4/1 Various
5:30pm Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle 2m 4 1/2f
The final race of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival, the ‘Getting Out Stakes’ and one of the most competitive handicaps of the week does not make it easy to go out on a winning note.
That being said, one of my best handicap fancies of the week does go in this contest, though all the double figure prices available at the start of the week are no longer available, and that is the Henry De Bromhead trainer Waterford Whispers.
The best form-line to look at coming into this race is the Novice Hurdle ran at Fairyhouse at the start of December, where Waterford Whispers beat Answer to Kayf, both horses are running in this contest and both are seriously well handicapped types.
Waterford Whispers is very unexposed, and would have won comfortably last time out if they had gone a proper gallop and the ride given by Mark Walsh very much suggested he didn’t want to be too hard on him and look to protect the attractive handicap mark for races such as this.
Once again, this improving type is owned by legendary gambler JP McManus so no surprise to see the floods of money come for him this week and he could easily go off a well supported favourite if the money and support continues throughout the day.
As mentioned above, if you fancy Waterford Whispers, you have to also like the chances of the Terence O’Brien trained Answer to Kayf.
This unexposed and improving 8 yr old chased home Waterford Whispers at Fairyhouse before going on to run a huge race in Graded company at Limerick on Boxing day on heavy ground.
He has been given a mark of just 137, and that looks very attractive and would appreciate a good pace in this race as will be doing his best work at the business end – a serious chance.
If No Ordinary Joe was trained by anyone else other than Nicky Henderson you would have to give him a major chance but with the trainers horses all under the weather you simply have to look elsewhere but would be a horse to follow later in the season when back in rude health.
Quai De Bourbon has been an ante-post plunge for this race and is rumoured to be one of the best handicapped horses in the Mullins yard from a mark of 140 – so has to be respected.
Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary owns the 5 yr old, and never sends runners to the Cheltenham handicaps just for the day out so clearly feels he has a great chance and this unbeaten ex French racer must surely go close if as good as the stable feel he could be.
One at bigger prices I will be keeping an eye on in the betting markets is another McManus owned horse, Thanksforthehelp.
This was really well backed and sent off favourite for the Pertemps last year at the Festival,
and gets in from a mark of just 125.
The word last year was that this was a Graded horse, so if it has been a long term plan of the owner and trainer David Pipe would be no surprise to see him go very close indeed.
Selections:
Waterford Whispers, 4/1 Various
Answer to Kayf, 9/1 Each-way, 5 places
Placepot
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As often mentioned at the major Festivals, it is always worthwhile throwing a couple of quid at the Placepot each-day.
The Tote are guaranteeing a pot of £1million each day during the Festival and worth noting that it actually paid around £40,000 to a £1 stake just a couple of seasons back.
Today’s Placepot suggestion:
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Race 1: 5, 7
Race 2: 2, 6, 15
Race 3: 6, 9
Race 4: 2, 4
Race 5: 5
Race 6: 2,8
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