For Day 2 of the festival we have our very own stat attack to go with our in depth race previews here.
So if you love a good stat and are looking for a different angle or trend to follow, check out the below for each race as we move in to Wednesday
Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle
• This century only four winners failed to win last time out, a negative for supporters of Ile Atlantique
• All of the 21 Challow hurdle winners to come to this race have been beaten, but six of the last ten to try were placed. This year’s race was won by Paul Nicholl’s Captain Teague, Nicholls is yet to taste success in this race
• Age is again a good pointer, with 8 of the last 10 winners aged 6 yrs old. Predators Gold and Handstands both come into this as a 5yr old which would be a negative.
• Trainer Willie Mullins has an excellent record in the race, winning it 6 times, but none of Mullins' 6 winners had been beaten that season. Unbeaten Mullins inmates need to be respected
• 12 of the last 15 winners had already won a Graded hurdle prior to the Festival
• The Irish have had a strangle hold on this race in recent years with Irish trained runners winning 9 of the last 10 renewals
• Another race where it is beneficial to focus at the top of the market with only one of the last 16 winners returning with an SP of over 8/1
Brown Advisory Novices
• Age is once again important, with all bar Don Poli of the last 17 winners aged either 7 or 8 yrs old
• French bred horses have a good record at the Festival but not so in this contest, with French breds having one winner from 43 runners since 2006, the winner being L'Homme Presse in 2022. This could be a worry for followers of Fact to File
• Class once again is significant, with 16 of the last 17 winners already 1st or 2nd in at least G2 chase prior to the Festival
• The last winners had a BHA chase rating of 150+ coming into the Festival, a negative for Montys Star and American Mike who are both rated just under this level at 147.
• Again, another race for the punters – with 8 from the last 9 winners coming from the top three in the betting
• No mare has won since Brief Gale in 1995.
• 9 from the last 12 winners were rated at least 143 over hurdles, again highlighting the fact it is beneficial to side with those with proven class rather than the unexposed types.
• No winner has worn headgear in the last 22 renewals
• Only Champ in 2020 came here to win on the back of a fall prior to the Festival
• This century only two failed to be 1st or 2nd last time out, a negative for those who were looking to support Stay Away Fay who finished 3rd last time out.
• Surprisingly trainer Gordon Elliott is yet to win this, he saddles American Mike this year.
Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle
• Class is again significant, as the last 7 winners of the race had already won at least class Listed level
• The last 10 winners of this race had won a hurdle contest in distance from 2m 2f to 2m 6f prior to coming to the Festival
• 8 of the last ten winner were Irish trained or trained by Nicky Henderson who has an excellent record in the contest. He has numerous chances this year including Doddiethegreat
• Favourties have a poor record in the race, hardly surprising given the competitive nature of the contest, Dame De Compagnie in 2020 and Xenophon in 2003 are the only clear fav’s ever to win.
• Look for unexposed improving types, only 5 winners this century had more than 9 previous hurdle runs prior to the Festival
• Age can be a pointer as only one winner has been older than 8 since 2007, a negative for those who had 9 yr old Ballyadam on the shortlist.
• 11 of the last 14 winners had previously run at Cheltenham
• 13 of the last 15 winner had no more than 4 previous runs that season coming into the Festival
• 14 of last 15 winners were rated at least 138 coming into the Festival, a negative for the supporters of Doddiethegreat
• 4 of the last 5 winners wore some sort of headgear, 3 of these had it applied for the first time.
• A wide open betting race, with only 3 of the last 15 winners returning shorter than 12/1, don’t be afraid to chance one at a double figure price.
Queen Mother Champion Chase
• Course and distance form is a big plus, with the last 15 winners of the race having won at the track previously here
• Horses in good form are a good starting point, as this century only Politologue and Sizing Europe had yet to win that season coming into the Festival itself
• Match fitness is again significant with only two winners this century that hadn't run in the calendar year prior to the Festival.
• Jonbon is going to be blinkered for the first time which may be seen as a negative as there has been no headgear-wearing winner since 1990.
• Class again is an obvious starting point, with all winners going back to 2008 having already won a Grade 1 prior to the Festival. This would be a negative for the likes of Boothill
• This is a race that bookmakers have a good record in, as this century there have been 11 odds on favourites, only three of these went on to score.
• That being said, it is not a race that has seen huge shocks with only one winner returning bigger than 11/1 since 1993
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 12 renewals of the race, and Henry De Bromhead has won 3 of the last 13
Glenfarclas Cross Country Steeple Chase
• A market watch is advised as in the last five renewals of the race, the front two in the market have been the first two home. Not a race for huge shocks recently
• Age is significant pointer with 11 of the last 13 winners aged no older than 10 yrs old, not ideal for supporters of market leaders Minella Indo and Delta Work who are both aged 11.
• Easysland is the only ever winner younger than 8yrs old when he won as a six yr old in 2020.
• Course form and experience is once again vital with 15 of the 19 winners having previously run at the course.
• The race has become much more of a classier affair in recent years with 12 of the last 14 winners having previously contested a Graded race
• 11 of the last 14 winners of the race had run in no more than five cross country races prior to the Festival
• Leading trainers Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins have all yet to win this race. Gordon Elliott has won 6 of the last 7 renewals.
• 6 of the last 9 winners were owned by Michael O Leary (Ryanair) Gigginstown Stud, This year he saddles both Coko Beach and Delta Work
• 17 of the 19 winners had experience previosuly running on a Cross Country course
• The last nine Irish trained winners all wore tongue ties
• Since becoming a conditions race, the top rated horse was always placed at least. Coko Beach comes into this highest rated with a BHA mark of 161
Johnny Henderson-Grand Annual Handicap Chase
• Age is again a good starting point with 11 of the last 14 winners aged 7, 8 or 9 yrs old. Leading fancy Madara comes into this as a 5 yr old which could prove to be a negative. Only three winners since 1997 were older than 9 years old also
• The last 13 winners of the race were rated between 136 and 152 coming into the Festival.
• Focus on runners that have a profile of an unexposed improving type, as this century only three winners with more than 12 chase runs have won the race.
• 10 from last 11 winners had no more than four chase runs that season, again showing it pays to focus on unexposed horses targeted at this race
• Jockey bookings can be significant in a tactical affair such as this with only one conditional jockey winner this century
• Only 2 winners since 2004 had already won a handicap chase that season, again a negative for the likes of Harper Brook and Madara who both won competitive hanidcap chases last time out
• 15 of the last 19 winners had run at a previous Festival, again highlighting the need for Festival form
• The last 12 winners of the race had not been seen out for at least 30 days prior to the Festival, fitness once again significant.
Weatherbys Champion Bumper
• No horse this century has won the Champion Bumper having been beaten favourite last time out, a negative for the likes of C’est Ta Chance who was beaten last time out at 4/6f
• Age again is relevant, with no 4 yr old winner since Cue Card back in 2010. 6 from the last eight winners were aged 5 yrs old
• Ratings are significant even if is still some what guesswork at this early stage of the horses career. Those with ratings of 132+ are 7 winners from the last 16 renewals of the race, a big positive for the likes of Jalon D’Oudaires, The Yellow Clay and You Oughta Know
• 16 of last 18 winners had no previous finish outside of the first two.
• 7 of the last 8 winners of the race last raced within 40 days of the Festival, a negative for Jalon D’Oudaries who has not been seen for 75 days.
• Seven of the last eight had already won a Listed or Graded Bumper prior to the Festival itself.
• Leading trainer Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott have trained 6 of the last 7 winners between them, and all there entries should be respected – not just the shortest priced runner as Facile Vega & Sir Gerhard are the only two of Mullins's last 7 winners to have SP shorter than 11/1
• Irish trained runners have won 10 of the last 12 renewals of the race
• Liberman back in 2003 was the last winner not to have won a previous race.
• An open race this year, but previously there has been 17 favourites in the last 31 renewals priced 5/2 or less. 14 of these have been beaten.
