After a pretty punter friendly opening day, and the well fancied runners generally doing the business, the greatest show on turf rolls on to Wednesday and once again we've got a great preview of it all for you here on The Cheeky Punts with and extra bonus of our very own stat attack for all 7 races which you can fine here
But first on to Day 2s action for Wednesday 13th March
1:30pm Gallagher Novices Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m5f
A cracking opener to Day 2, and we start with one of the big talking horses of the whole week, and many punters banker of the Festival, Ballyburn.
As mentioned numerous times in Day 1 preview, Ballyburn is seen as the standard setter for this year’s juvenile and the vibes coming out of Closutton and Ireland as a whole could not be stronger. Up until 10 days ago Ballyburn was a hot favourite for the Supreme Novices on Day 1 but has been rerouted to this longer race and for me that is the right decision. Though clearly not short of speed, he does look to be better the further he goes so this 2mile 5 furlong trip should be ideal.
When you consider he thrashed yesterdays Supreme winner Slade Steel by 7 lengths last time out – and eased down to do so, he really does look impossible to oppose. We could see something special and the current price reflects that unfortunately.
Mullins has the top 3 in the betting and for me the most likely to chase home Ballyburn is the Danny Mullins ridden Predators Gold. The 5 yr old will have no problems with the heavy ground as already has strong form in Ireland under the conditions and looks the type that will be doing his best work at the business end as is full of stamina in his breeding.
Though maybe not as classy as Ballyburn, conditions are ideal and sure to run a big race and will be a horse to follow in all the staying novice chases next season.
Ile Atlantique is owned by Brighton Chairman Tony Bloom, a legendary high rolling punter – so any strong market support would be significant and is worth monitoring.
The 6 yr old was well backed at Naas last time out when only finding stable-mate Reading Tommy Wrong too good. He does have form on softer ground so that will not be an issue, the worry for me is that he might be a touch soft when it comes to a battle, as has been involved in 3 tight finishers and come out second in all three. Again, sure to run his race but personally not one I would be backing for win purposes
The best of the British looks to be Handstands for Ben Pauling and Jingko Blue for Nicky Henderson.
I would be happy to put a line through any Nicky Henderson runner at the moment as clearly is something amiss with his runners with every runner bar Luccia looking the first beat and are struggling to even finish races, I wouldn't be backing a Henderson horse with counterfeit money for the time being.
Handstands is a nice sort, unbeaten – and clearly will make a top chaser next season but has almost 2 stone to find on official ratings compared to Ballyburn and you would have to think he has place claims at best.
Selections:
Ballyburn Win, 2/5
Predators Gold Each-Way, 11/1 Betvictor / Corals, or
Predators Gold, Without Ballyburn, 100/30 William Hill
2:10pm Brown Advisory Novices Chase (Grade 1) 3m1/2f
Just the 6 go to post for this years Brown Advisory which is a shame- but what we lack in numbers we do not lack in quality. The obvious place to start is the big talking horse of the race, the JP McManus owned and Willie Mullins trained Fact to File.
Fact To File is being ranked as a potential Gold Cup winner by all the right people connected with the Mullins yard and had his form franked yesterday with Gaelic Warrior scoring in good style in the Arkle.
Fact to File looked to run the engine out of Gaelic Warrior at the DRF in February and a similar performance would make him really hard to beat.
The one note of caution for backers of Fact To File would be the trip. As you would have seen from Day 1 of the meeting it is going to be testing ground, you have to be a proper stayer to get home over this trip and we have yet to see Fact To File being tried over anything further than 2m5f.
In a similar vein to Lossiemouth yesterday, expect to see Fact To File cruising behind the pace, looking the most likely winner throughout the race – but you really are simply gambling on whether he will fully get the trip and up that Cheltenham hill. If he does, he will win – and win well, as he is the best horse in the contest.
The home brigade will be banking on the chances of the Paul Nicholls trained Stay Away Fay, the winner of the 2023 Albert Bartlett at the Festival.
If they make this a real test, and stamina comes into play – this will be a huge advantage for the 7 year old and strikes me as the type who will stay longer than the mother in law.I personally would be worried about the strength of the form from last years Albert Bartlett as it has not worked out too well, not to mention he was well beat by Capodanno at the track at the end of January, so not one that would strike me with much confidence.
The trainer has been quoted as saying he has him in excellent nick, but I am happy to look elsewhere for the most likely winner.
American Mike actually beat Fact To File at Navan back in November so has to be respected, and clearly goes well at the track as was previously second in the Champion Bumper behind Facile Vega back in 2022, he looks overpriced if back to his very best, and heavy ground will not be an issue.
Montys Star only has the 2 chase starts to date, but all the right sounds are coming out of the Henry De Bromhead yard and they feel this 7 year old has a major chance in this contest.
A horse that will stay all day and really enjoy the conditions, if it does turn into a slog there will not be a horse finishing better than Montys Star. He looks the type to opt for eachway or without the favourite if not keen on taking the short prices available for Fact to File.
At a much bigger price you can make a case for Sandor Clegane, it wouldn't be a total surprise to see him bounce back and go close in this event as he was very unlucky last year behind Stay Away Fay and is another who will have no issues with the conditions of the race.
Not one to totally dismiss despite his current price.
Selections:
Fact To File, Win – 5/6 Various
Montys Star, Each-way 13/2
2:50pm Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle 2m5f
One of the trickiest races of the week, as we have said numerous times it can pay to have a couple of stabs at this race rather than bank on one selection, one of the most competitive races of the whole National Hunt season.
That being said, one of my best handicap hopes (along with Waterford Whispers on Friday) for the entire week goes in this race – the Martin Brassil trained Built By Ballymore.
The 6 yr old has improved no end since upped in trip and looks to have been let in lightly with a mark of just 139.
Brassil is a genius at getting one ready for the Festival as we have seen with the likes of Fastorslow in recent years and this very much looks like a plan all season in targeting this race at the Festival. He will love the heavy ground and I expect him to be bang there granted a clear run.
You cannot discount Langer Dan for the Skelton's, a horse who did us a big favour when winning this race for us last year when was the NAP of the day at 9/1, and gets to race off the same mark of 141.
He has shown nothing at all this year, so are taking it on trust that the trainer has him back to his best but not one you can discount lightly.
Doddiethegreat caught the eye in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury but as mentioned previously you simply cannot entertain any of the Henderson runners at the current time so will quickly put a line through him.
Sa Majeste is very very interesting, and if there is a runner that is a complete handicap blot, it would be him – but it just so hard to assess how good he actually is.
The 6 yr old actually beat Grand National winner Noble Yeats over 2mile 4f at Limerick over the Christmas period and gets into this on a mark of just 140, that was also ran on very testing ground so conditions should not be an issue and is easy to make a case for.
Not a horse I would be looking to lay if I was a bookmaker in the ring and could rank the main danger to Built By Ballymore.
One I am very interested in and can’t quite believe the price is the Gordon Elliott trained Western Fold. This horse gets in on a mark of just 133, and has the assistance of top conditional Sam Ewing who is sure to give him a decent ride.
Western Fold loved the softer conditions when scoring by 15 lengths at Down Royal last time out and this was by far the best time on the whole card, very much suggesting he is better than a 133 horse. He looks overpriced and could be a touch of value.
Also of interest, especially if strong market support would be Might I for Harry Fry, and Zanndabad for the very shrewd yard of Tony Martin.
Selections:
Built By Ballymore, 11/2 Each-Way, 6 places, Various
Western Fold, 25/1 Each-Way, 6 places, Betvictor / Coral
3:30pm Queen Mother Champion Chase
The highlight on Day 2 is the Queen Mother Champion Chase, and though once again a fairly small field it once again is a field full of quality.
The only place to start is last years Arkle winner, El Fabiolo – who, on all known form will take all the beating once again for team Mullins.
The 7 yr old is unbeaten over fences to date and though many have questioned how good of a jumper he really is, the fact is he is yet to fall and clearly possesses a huge engine which makes him really hard to beat.
He beat Jonbon last season by 5 ½ lengths and comes into this on the back of a convincing victory over Dinoblue at the DRF, and will enjoy the underfoot conditions.
If running to the level of form we saw at the DRF and at previous Festivals he will be impossible to beat once again.
Again, the worry with main market rival Jonbon is the stable form of Trainer Nicky Henderson. It is not ideal to come into the race with so many stable-mates clearly looking under the weather, and would need everything to be 110% in order to shake up El Fabiolo.
Many think if back to his best he could reverse form with the market leader, but he was beat at the track last time out when making bad jumping errors and didn’t exactly look to jump great again on videos emerging of him schooling at home recently across social media.
Not a horse I would personally be looking to back until the yard are back amongst the winners.
Edwardstone could be the main danger, especially if they continue with the tactics used last time when he was ridden much more prominently and seemed to improve for doing so.
If Jonbon was to crash out or underperform, and he was to run to a similar level as when winning last time out, he would rate the best chance of a winner for the home team.
Captain Guinness is another that is likely to set the pace, if he gets into a good rhythm jumping from fence to fence it would be no surprise to see him run another big race, but you do feel something would need to go wrong with the likes of El Fabiolo to actually been seen in the winners enclosure.
Selections:
El Fabiolo, 8/15 – Various
Edwardstone, Without El Fabiolo – 5/2 Betvictor
4:10pm Cross Country Chase 3m 5 1/2f
At the time of writing there is suggestions that the Cross Country course is still waterlogged and could possibly be ran on Friday instead, even so – if it does get the go ahead the track is going to a bog, so you absolutely need to focus on those with proven heavy ground form.
The obvious place to start is Delta Work, who has won the last two renewals of the race and will have no problems at all with the heavy ground.
This race has clearly been the target all season, but he hasn't shown much in his last two runs, including when beat over course and distance back in November, and is hard to ignore the fact that he is now 11 years old.
A horse that excels over these fences, and trainer Gordon Elliott is sure to have him just where he wants for the big day, but not one I would be looking to weight in with personally, but no surprise at all to see him win for the third year running.
Stable-mate Coko Beach is very much of interest, and comes into the race with the highest official rating. The 9 yr old was really impressive when scoring over the bank fences at Punchestown, beating Genois by 6 lengths and might be the springer in the market, any strong market support would be significant as runs in the same ownership colours as last years winner Delta Work.
Galvin is a grand horse who is sure to go well, but the best of his form has always been on better ground so is likely to hate the conditions, so happy to give him the swerve this afternoon.
Minella Indo has been the ante-post favourite for the race for a fair while now and is a horse that is easy to make a case for.
Henry De Bromheads former Gold Cup winner ran really well over course and distance back in December and a similar performance to that run would make him very hard to beat.
He does have strong form on heavy ground and would need respecting, as you cannot argue with the fact he is the class option in the field if back to anywhere near his best form.
Foxy Jacks is worth mentioning for Each-Way purposes but is hard to see him really troubling those right at the top of the betting.
Trainer Mouse Morris is a genius for preparing one for the big day but you need to take it for granted that he will handle these conditions, though does have bits and pieces of form that suggests it shouldn’t be too much of an inconvenience. If handling the conditions, he might be the value in the race and offer as an Each-Way alternative to those at the top of the market.
Selections:
Coko Beach, 10/3, Various
Foxy Jacks, Each-Way 12/1 – 4 places, Various
4:50pm Grand Annual Handicap Chase 2m
A cracking renewal of the Grand Annual this year, and as recommended previously in ultra competitive handicaps such as this it may be worthwhile to throw more than one dart at the board rather than putting all your eggs in one basket.
Madara is likely to be popular after the victory in the Dublin Racing Festival, and in all fairness he was really impressive, but has been raised 10lbs for that victory and would need to buck the trend of the 5 yr olds in this race who do not have a great record at all.
A market watch is strongly advised with the JP McManus owned Saint Roi, who looks to have been laid out for this race and could be heavily punted if that is the case.
He bolted up in a County Hurdle back in 2020, and this is his first return to handicap company since winning that contest and has more recently been seen chasing home the likes of El Fabiolo and Banbridge in Grade 1 chases.
He has caught the eye on more than one occasion this season given rides that screamed ‘not today’ so is very interesting they have got his mark back down to be seen back in handicap company. Very interesting runner if strong in the market.
Path D’Oroux is being well touted by a number of good judges and would have to go close if jumping better than showed when chasing home Madara at the DRF. To finish close up in a competitive handicap such as that and jumping so poorly suggests he is a really well handicapped horse and granted a clear round would have to go close, conditions look ideal also for this mud lover.
One that has been well backed in the build up to the Festival is the Evan Williams trained Libberty Hunter, and the booking of leading Jockey Harry Cobden catches the eye.
Williams is not the sort of trainer to enter one up as a social runner, and has won both completed starts to date and very much looks on the upgrade and unexposed.
The form of beating Matata last time out at Cheltenham is rock solid and must be a positive that he has also won on heavy ground. Another big run looks on the cards.
Harpers Brook is somewhat of an enigma. A very talented horse, but he does have his own idea’s about the game and has thrown the race away on more than one occasion when clear, so if backing him you will be biting your nails right up until the moment he actually passes the winning line.
He did win well at Sandown last time out, so comes into the contest in good form, and looks the type that will trade shorter in the run itself, but would not be carrying any of my money on this occasion and prefer to look elsewhere.
Last years winner Maskada will have to be of interest from a 7lb higher mark, and this looks as if it has been the plan since winning in such good style last March.
The form of the race was also very strong, including Grade 1 winner Dinoblue in behind beaten 6 lengths, so every chance another big effort is expected. If reproducing the performance from last year, he will have to enter calculations.
Selections:
Saint Roi, Each-Way 15/2, 5 places, Various
Path D’Oroux, Each-Way 10/1, 5 places, Various
5:30pm Champion Bumper 2m 1/2f
Not the easiest way to end the day, the getting out stakes on Day 2 of the Festival being the Champion Bumper, the National Hunt Flat race.
As you would expect, this can throw up some shock results with little or no form to go on, and all runners coming in here as young, inexperienced types with all the future in front of them.
As mentioned numerous times in these previews it can be beneficial to throw more than one dart at the board, and personally I would keep stakes close to a minimum in a race such as this.
I have backed Teeshan ante-post for this race at nice prices, so happy to see him well supported in the build up to the race itself.
There was a strong word from the bloodstock agent that bought Teeshan, Tom Malone – that he felt this was a serious horse prior to his rules debut at Exeter, and won well without really coming off the bridle.
A number of point to point judges have flagged up Teeshan as a horse to follow as destroyed his field by 41 lengths and was snapped up by Malone for leading owner Johnny De La Hey soon after. It will be interesting to see how the English bumper form compares to the Irish but hopefully he continues to progress and goes well. A horse to stick in your trackers for next season.
If you are a fan of Teeshan, it might be worth having a few quid each-way on the other Nicholls runner, Quebecois.
There are positive sounds coming out of Ditcheat that there is not too much between the two of them and is another that made a good impression when scoring at Exeter just before Christmas.
Another runner from the home brigade that needs to be on the shortlist is Sixmilebridge for trainer Ben Pauling and looks a touch of value at his current price.
Pauling is having an excellent season with endless amount of bumper winners, so could be significant that he has made no secret that he rates Sixmilebridge as the best of his bunch.
I was also informed recently that Sixmilebridge worked all over an older horse in the yard, Shakem up’Arry at a recent gallop workout at Kempton. Shakem up’Arry is currently rated 143 which would indicate Sixmilebridge has a serious engine and needs respecting in this contest if running to that level of form.
Of the Irish raiders, you have to respect the chances of the Gordon Elliott duo, Jalon D’oudairies and Romeo Coolio.
Romeo Coolio has always had a massive reputation and was rumoured to only be 60% fit when scoring at Fairyhouse in mid January. If stripping fitter and reproducing the level of form he shows at home he must enter calculations.
Jalon D’oudairies is the pick for Jack Kennedy which could be a tip in itself and looked hugely impressive when beating Redemption Day at Leopardstown after Christmas.
Elliott also has The Yellow Clay who was a real unlucky loser last time out and is the pick of many good judges in the run up to the Festival.
It is impossible to know which of the Willie Mullins runners is his best, any market support would be significant but it is hard to be clear which of his is most likely to score this afternoon.
If put a gun to my head to nominate one of his runners I would opt for Cantico, who is ridden by stable jockey Paul Townend. He was impressive when winning at Navan last time out and the form-line behind Martin Brassils Goldinthemountains at Leopardstown on Boxing Day is top class and is sure to run a big race granted a clear run.
Selections:
Sixmilebridge, Each-Way 16/1, 5 places
Cantico, Each-Way 10/1, 5 places
Placepot
As often mentioned at the major Festivals, it is always worthwhile throwing a couple of quid at the Placepot each-day.
The Tote are guaranteeing a pot of £1million each day during the Festival and worth noting that it actually paid around £40,000 to a £1 stake just a couple of seasons back.
Today’s Placepot suggestion:
Race 1: 1,
Race 2: 2, 4
Race 3: 12, 13, 14,
Race 4: 4
Race 5: 2, 3
Race 6: 2, 8
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