The greatest show on turf kicks off with its usual cracker on Tuesday for Day 1 so we've got a great preview of it all for you here on The Cheeky Punts with our very own Scott back especially for the Festival
Tuesday 12th March
1:30pm – Supreme Novices Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 1/2f
It’s that time of year again – The Cheltenham roar as the traditional curtain raiser that is the Supreme Novices contest over an extended 2miles gets us started, and this year’s renewal looks to be one of the most competitive affairs for a number of year’s.
This year’s race looked to be dominated by the Willie Mullins trained Ballyburn in the build up to the Festival, but that was all thrown up in the air when they diverted to the longer race later in the week. Mullins is instead represented by the likes of Tullyhill, Mystical Power, Asian Master and Mistergif so still looks to hold all the aces and get his week off to a flyer.
I felt Mystical Power would be better suited by the longer race later in the week as he can be very keen in his races and is no surprise that Mullins has opted to go for the headgear to try and help him settle.
If you are a backer of the JP McManus 5 yr old you would want to see him settled at the start as he could be the type to get worked up with the noise and excitement at the start of this Festival opener. I am sure connections were hoping for slightly better ground too, so would be looking elsewhere for my winner of the opener this year.
Tullyhill would be top of my shortlist at the current time, with the only worry being the quality of his hurdling as he has lost vital ground in his 3 hurdle appearances to date, which may not be possible in a race such as this quality.
I was told by someone closely connected to the yard that before the start of this National Hunt season all the vibes coming from Mullins’s Closutton yard was they had two exceptional young horses, Ballyburn and Tullyhill – and no surprise to see the trainer separating them for this Festival. I am sure the team would have been working extensively on his hurdling at home, and if jumping well I would expect Tullyhill to be the one they all have to beat.
Another at the top of the shortlist would be Slade Steel, who represents the Ballyburn form-line from Leopardstown at the Dublin Racing Festival.
If Ballyburn is the machine that a lot of good judges seem to think he is, Slade Steel must be a proper tool also as was second when they met in the Grade 1 event and the team has opted to go for this contest rather than look to try and reverse form with Ballyburn once again.
You can be guaranteed that they will go a good gallop in this race, the likes of Ben Pauling’s Tellherthename and Mistergif will look to front run and this could be prove ideal for the likes of finishers like Slade Steel who will surely improve from a step up in trip next season. The quicker they go, the better his chance.
Using Ballyburn as the standard setter for the Novices this season, you would have to want to keep Firefox on side for Gordon Elliott.
Firefox lowered the colours of Ballyburn at Fairyhouse and the team feel there was something amiss when he was well beat at Navan in the Grade 1 last time out. If you forgive him that run you could argue he would be clear favourite for this event and has to be a big player if back to his best.
Jeriko Du Reponet has always had a big reputation but hasn't exactly set the world alight in his last two appearances at Newbury and Doncaster. The form from Doncaster has been franked with Lump Sum coming out and winning since but is hard to believe Lump Sum would have any sort of say in this type of race so I feel Jeriko Du Reponet has plenty to find.
Furthermore, the figures he produced in winning have been very poor compared to others to the top of the market and the form of Nicky Henderson’s horses would be a major worry coming into this week.
The one at much bigger prices that I feel is overpriced is the Willie Mullins trained Asian Master, who will be ridden by the owners son, amateur rider Tom Costello.
Costello is one of the tallest jockeys you will ever see at the Festival so his riding ability is slightly a worry as is the fact he will not be able to claim his usual 7lb allowance, but Asian Master put up a huge figure on the clock when scoring at Navan last time out under similar conditions to today and a reproduction of that form would have to see him go close. He look’s overpriced at the current trading odd’s.
Selections:
Tullyhill, 3/1 Various
Asian Master, Each-Way 20/1 4 places, Paddy Power, 888, BetUK
2:10pm – Arkle Novices Chase (Grade 1) 2miles
A very tricky and interesting betting race this year. A race that the starting point has to be the enigma that is Gaelic Warrior.
If this was run the other way round – right handed, Gaelic Warrior would just about be one of my best bet’s of the week. Unfortunately, he does have a tendency to jump violently out to the right and therefore will lose vital ground at each and every obstacle.
It is noteworthy that Willie has opted to put headgear on for the first time, in the hope this help’s him to jump straight and you can rest assured that jockey Paul Townend will try to get a prime pitch glued to the inside, with rivals on his outside keeping him straight and narrow.
It is one of those tricky decisions, do you take the risk or not – you could easily be looking back in hindsight at 2:20pm and thinking after he has bolted up ‘why did I not back him’ – but not one for maximum faith going left handed.
Il Etait Temps looks a cracking each-way option at the current prices available.
Many judges are suggesting that he does not like Cheltenham as has put up 2 poor performances at the last 2 Festivals, but you could argue there are excuses on both of these occasions.
This race is sure to be run at a real strong gallop with 3 or 4 front runners in the field and this will suit Il Etait Temps perfectly as will be staying on best up the hill passing tired rivals.
I cannot really understand why Hunters Yarn is as short as he is for this race. Yes, he is a high class animal and deserves his place in the field, but for me he will be third pick for the stable after Gaelic Warrior and Il Etait Temps, though will be doing his best work at the business end and staying on strongly.
JPR One looks the best of the home brigade, he is one that is sure to be prominent throughout and was unlucky not to score over course and distance in November when slipping after jumping clear looking to score comfortably.
He might be one to look to back pre-race and trade out for a profit once jumping fence to fence in a good rhythm from the front, but I get the feeling he may just find one or two too good.
Quilixios is being well touted, but has a lot to find so I feel he will run well but likely to find one too good, and this is a big step up for My Mate Mozzie who I feel should have taken up his engagement in a handicap later in the week.
Of those at much bigger prices, Master Chewy should not be ignored and would not dismiss his chance of running into a place, especially if backing with one of the layers offering the first 4 places for each way terms.
He beat Nickle Back comfortably over the Xmas period, Nickle Back has since come out and won a Grade 1 by 7 lengths, and this race is likely to be set up for a closer which will suit Master Chewy who is likely to be ridden just off the pace.
Selection:
Il Etait Temps, Each-way 11/2 4places – Skybet, Livescorebet, 6/1 3places
2:50pm – Ultima Handicap Chase 3mile 1f
The first handicap of the meeting and this year’s renewal looks a very trappy affair, no shame in throwing more than one dart at the board in a race like this and hope one of them hits the bullseye.
Trainer Kim Bailey has forgotten more about training horses than most would know and always seems to target runners at this race so both Trelawne and Chianti Classico need to be respected and on your shortlists.
The worry about Trelawne is his jumping, he has made bad errors in a couple of his chase starts and would not be allowed to get away with that here, but you have to imagine he is seriously well handicapped from a mark of 144 and will improve for this step up in trip.
Chianti Classico is also respected, a horse very much on the upgrade and looks to have been targeted at this race all season, it is hard to imagine a mark of 143 is the ceiling of his ability.
Meetingofthewaters has been subject of strong market support in the build up to the Festival and it is easy to make a case for the JP McManus owned 7 yr old.
There has been talk on the preview circuit that is a potential Gold Cup horse, if this is the case he is seriously well handicapped today from a mark of 147 and would take some stopping.
The Goffer is very interesting for trainer Gordon Elliott. Last years renewal of this race was one of the strongest in history, and The Goffer came there absolutely swinging, if anything, jockey Davy Russell got there far too early as is the type that needs to be produced as late as possible.
His prep was interesting as he won a charity race that does not appear in your official form guide, so clearly in good heart and gets in from a 5lb lower mark than last season.
Monbeg Genius has to be given a mention when you consider he was a good third, one place ahead of The Goffer, in last years race and though disappointing in the last 3 outings if he was to return to form would be a serious player from a mark of 147.
Weveallbeencaught is a very interesting runner for the local yard of the Twiston-Davies team. He was backed off the boards for handicap over course and distance just before the Christmas break, but the run was too bad too be true and you should put a line through the run. Something was found to be troubling him that day, and looks really well handicapped from a mark of just 134, no surprise if he is really well backed throughout the day.
One at a huge price who looks overpriced is another Elliott runner, Minella Crooner, who is very hit and miss but at his very best would be capable from a mark of 145 and will enjoy the underfoot conditions.
Selections:
Weveallbeencaught, Each-Way 10/1, 6 places
The Goffer, Each-Way 13/2, 6 places
3:30pm – Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 1/2f
The highlight of the opening day is the Champion Hurdle, a race thrown open with the late withdrawal of last year’s winner Constitution Hill.
The obvious starting point is State Man, who on all know form will take all the beating and really does set the standard. The yard feel he was not quite right when chasing home Constitution Hill last season and if back to his sizzling best will be impossible to stop. This is the only time State Man has been beaten over hurdles when completing and is hard to make a case that anything other than a comfortable victory is on the cards.
With Constitution Hill being withdrawn, Trainer Nicky Henderson has decided to add Iberico Lord to the field and you can make an obvious each-way case for the 6 year old.
The JP McManus owned hurdler faces a big step up in grade here but could not have been more impressive when winning the competitive Betfair Hurdle at Newbury at the start of February, and the manner of the victory suggested this is a proper graded animal.
Furthermore, the time was really impressive on the clock and suggested he is not out of his depth in this field. A slight worry is the form of the Henderson yard so you would want to see an encouraging run from Jeriko De Reponet in the opener if looking to support Iberico Lord.
One that I would be interested in backing Each-way or without the favourite is the Willie Mullins second string, Zarak The Brave.
Though only a 5 year old, this will be his 8th run over hurdles so not totally inexperienced and was impressive to battle back to win a tight Galway Hurdle at their Festival back in August.
The yard made positive noises after this race suggesting they feel he is a proper Grade 1 performer and can see him ridden to finish in the places and rates a solid each-way option.
Irish Point is interesting for trainer Gordon Elliott who has rerouted him from the Stayers Hurdle, but the feeling is that he will be much more suited to better ground so will be happy to give him the swerve this afternoon.
If the ground comes up very soft it would be no surprise to see Nemean Lion run into the places but on all known form does have a lot to find with the market leaders.
Selections:
Zarak The Brave, each-way 22/1 Bet365
Iberico Lord, Without the Favourite, 11/4 William Hill, Bet365
4:10pm – Mares Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m4f
This is a race that revolves around the market leader, Lossiemouth – who understandably is a lot of peoples banker for the Festival.
One word of caution for those of you looking to get really stuck in with Lossiemouth would be to see how exactly the ground is riding throughout the day and how testing it really is. The only worry about Willie Mullins mare is whether she is going to fully get home over this extended trip or not, and should it continue to rain and be a test of stamina it has to be a major worry.
Rival rider’s will be aware of this, so do not be surprised if you see numerous rider’s looking to make this a real test of stamina to try and test the market leader.
The slower, or steadier they go in the early fractions, the better the chance that Lossiemouth will win – and win well.
Lossiemouth couldn’t have been more impressive when beating Love Envoi at the track back in January on Trials Day, but that was over an extended 2miles. She showed loads of natural pace that day so expect Paul Townend to be cruising in behind the pace for the majority of this trip, the only worry will be whether she gets up the hill when push comes to shove.
If you do use the betting exchanges and looking to back Lossiemouth, it will be sensible to put a lay in the system as she is sure to trade short in the run itself, the only question being whether she will truly get up the hill if they go a proper gallop.
Stable mate Ashroe Diamond is the obvious danger, and will have no worries about getting up the hill. She won well last time out at Doncaster and has form over the trip when winning the Grade 1 Mares Hurdle at the Fairyhouse Festival. A rock solid each way alternative to the favourite.
Another Mullins runner that looks to have been forgotten by the market is the Kenny Alexander owned Gala Marceau. The mare looks a huge price when you consider she beat Lossiemouth at Leopardstown last season and then chased her home in the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival itself.
Though disappointing this season, the yard seem to feel she is coming back to her best and with the headgear applied she looks massively overpriced at the current prices.
Two others to consider at big prices are the Henry De Bromhead trained pair, Lantry Lady and Telmesomethinggirl. Lantry Lady has only been seen on the racecourse twice, but was really impressive when winning at Gowran Park at the end of February and clocked a very impressive figure on the clock, it is also very interesting Jack Kennedy takes the ride.
Telmesomethinggirl was a winner at the Festival back in 2021 and looked to be somewhere near back to her best when chasing home Zarak The Brave at Naas. A similar performance here today would put her right in the mix.
Selections:
Lantry Lady, 20/1 Each-way, Various
Gala Marceau, 22/1 Each-way, Various
4:50pm – Boodles Handicap Hurdle 2m 1/2f
This is one of the toughest puzzles of the week, and I would recommend throwing a few darts at the board at big prices rather than looking to bank on just the one selection.
I had a long shortlist for this race coming into the Festival, and managed to whittle this down to 5 at the current time.
Top of the shortlist will be Eagle Fang, for the small Irish yard of Willie Durkan.
Eagle Fang won the Naas hurdle race which has produced four of the last 5 winners of this race and looks to have got in with a lovely mark of 125. I understand this has been the plan all season so expect a big run and has gone slightly under the radar.
Next up would be Nara, for the Henry De Bromhead yard. I have a feeling this might be one of the gambles for the race, owned by JP McManus it would be significant if there was strong market support and she chased home Eagle Fang in the Naas race mentioned above.
She was well backed that day and is interesting that the trainer has applied the headgear for the first time which could bring the required improvement.
Miss Manzor is very interesting for Willie and Danny Mullins from a mark of 130.
She won well last time out in a hot race at Fairyhouse in a figure that was impressive on the clock and looks the type that will be a Graded performer in no time at all.
A market watch is recommended on the Denis Hogan trained Bright Legend. Hogan is one shrewd operator and gets this in from a mark of 121. The horse is part owned by legendary bookmaker Justin Carthy who is closely linked now to JP McManus and once again any market support would be significant.
Lark in the Mornin has an obvious chance, as does Milan Tino, but my last selection would beBatman Girac who has been touted as a likely winner of this race for some time and does look to be thrown in from an opening mark of 133.
He was subject of major market support on debut for Mullins before catching the eye off the pace in the Grade 2 at Xmas and would be no surprise if he is seen in Graded races after running a big race in this handicap. A well handicapped type.
Selections:
Eagle Fang, 22/1 Each-Way, 6 places, Paddy Power
Nara, 16/1 Each-Way, 6 places, Betfair & Paddy Power
Bright Legend, 20/1 Each-way, 6 places Bet365
5:30pm – NH Chase – Amateur Riders 3m6f
A very interesting race to close Day 1, and personally I will be looking away from those to the top of the market.
One thing to note, some bookmakers are going eachway the first 3 finishers in this race, which is hugely beneficial, so make sure to check the place terms with your bookmaker and look to take advantage of the place terms on offer.
I think the strongest form-line for this race is the Reynoldstown Chase ran at Ascot on the 17th Feb, won by Henrys Friend, with Kilbeg King in second and Apple Away 2 lengths back in third.
It is very significant that the time of this race actually rates favourably with the Grade 1 won by Pic D'Orhy on the same card, and the sectionals suggest they actually finished quicker than Pic D’Orhy even though running over 3miles compared to Pic D’Orhys 2mile contest. This is really impressive and should be noted.
Personally I feel Kilbeg King could reverse the form and rates a cracking each way bet for this contest. Once again, check the place terms your bookmaker is offering as some layers (Bet365, Skybet, Coral, Betfred) are paying the first 3 home and is worthwhile taking advantage of this with just the 7 runners.
As mentioned, both Henry’s Friend and Apples Away should be respected on the Ascot formline with Kilbeg King, and sure to run big races.
Corbetts Cross comes here on the back of a fall and does not look straight forward, but is a class animal and has the assistance of the best rider in the race – Derek O Connor.
Embassy Gardens is the ride for Patrick Mullins and has to be respected, a 150 rated chaser who wouldn't look out of place in the graded races elsewhere this week. He was really impressive when beating Sandor Clegane by 10 lengths at Naas and would rate the main danger.
Selection:
Kilbeg King, 11/1 Each-Way, 3 places Bet365
Placepot
As often mentioned at the major Festivals, it is always worthwhile throwing a couple of quid at the Placepot each-day.
The Tote are guaranteeing a pot of £1million each day during the Festival and worth noting that it actually paid around £40,000 to a £1 stake just a couple of seasons back.
Today’s Placepot suggestion:
Race 1: 1, 12
Race 2: 5, 6
Race 3: 6, 22
Race 4: 6
Race 5: 5, 6
Race 6: 5, 10
