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The Guest Tipster - Ryan: 15th Jan

Updated: Jan 15, 2022

This weekend we bring you not one but two guest tipsters and I have invited a Ryan Blythe to give us his views on a couple of todays races. Ryan joined our man Phil Oddie on the Picks from the Paddock preview a few weeks ago online and also has a great page on Tik Tok with a great following. You can check it out at the_sure_thing and if you want to join Ryans group, you can drop him an email to join The Birdcage group for even more tips from him


Lets take a look at what Ryan fancies for today


Saturday 15th January


2.40 KEMPTON

GREEN BOOK 6-1

The Lanzarote hurdle is always a competitive event. Run over 2 miles 5 furlongs at Kempton, 15/20 winners have later gone on to compete at the Cheltenham festival.


Nicky Henderson saddles the antepost plunge horse Marie’s Rock, she’s down to a best priced 6-1 joint favourite. The form of her course and distance win certainly brings substance, although she did get raised 9lb for that empathetic victory. One at a huge price that keeps catching my eye is Carry’s Commodity. He’s 50-1 and not given much chance by the bookies, even looking through his best form it’s hard to make a case. Jonjo O’Neil had a few entries in this race and it could be significant that he is the trainers only runner.

Onto my selection. And Green Book is my idea of the winner. Trained by Venetia Williams this unexposed 5 year old gelding is a battle hardened youngster, rated 89 on the level using my rule of the big 40 when translating flat form, that would suggest this animal has the capabilities of running to a mark of 139 over hurdles. He’s officially rated 130………but young jockey Ned Kelly claims a valuable 10lb of this lads back, he’s ridden this lad to victory already. Add to that conditional jockeys have a cracking record in this race, 5/8 winners have been ridden by conditional jockeys.

Our lad won the consolation Chester Cup back in May, he then ran well at Royal Ascot and Goodwood which fills you will hope he will be up to the hustle and bustle of a lanzarote hurdle. I think this lad is still ahead of the handicapped. And carrying just 10st 2lb off a mark of 120 I think our lad has a cracking chance.


3.35 WARWICK

ALAPHILIPPE 10-30


This horse is my idea of the strongest bet of the day. Trained by Fergal O’Brien, this 8 year old gelding will be ridden by Paddy The Cowboy Brennan. Now this race is a qualifier for the Pertemps at the festival in March. Our lad has an official rating of 140 after a cracking novice campaign last season, but with these qualifiers often trainers just target these races to get their horse qualified.


I think this horse has the potential to improve a fair bit, and considering connections have entered him in the stayers come March that would suggest this horse has improved over the summer. Today we get a nice racing weight of 10st 8lb, and genuine soft ground is perfect for our lad. On our final run last year we finished 5th in the Albert Bartlett behind my beautiful Vanillier that was on good ground, again soft ground brings out the best in this lad.


Trainer Fergal O’Brien won this race last year and knows how to get one ready fto.


Good Luck to everyone today and lets hope we see another Get Up There from Ryan today



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